TY - GEN
AU - P. Pinson
AU - Renate Hagedorn
AB - A framework for the verification of ensemble forecasts of near-surface wind speed is described. It is based on existing scores and diagnostic tools, though considering observations from synoptic stations as reference instead of the analysis. This approach is motivated by the idea of having a user oriented view of verification, with in mind the wind power application for instance. The verification framework is specifically applied to the case of ECMWF ensemble forecasts and over the Europe area. Dynamic climatologies are derived at the various stations, then serving as a benchmark. The impact of observational uncertainty on scores and diagnostic tools is also considered. The interest of this framework is demonstrated from its application to the routine evaluation of ensemble forecasts and to the assessment of the quality improvements brought in by the recent change in horizontal resolution of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system.
BT - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
DA - 03/2011
DO - 10.21957/r7h9hxu9k
LA - eng
M1 - 646
N2 - A framework for the verification of ensemble forecasts of near-surface wind speed is described. It is based on existing scores and diagnostic tools, though considering observations from synoptic stations as reference instead of the analysis. This approach is motivated by the idea of having a user oriented view of verification, with in mind the wind power application for instance. The verification framework is specifically applied to the case of ECMWF ensemble forecasts and over the Europe area. Dynamic climatologies are derived at the various stations, then serving as a benchmark. The impact of observational uncertainty on scores and diagnostic tools is also considered. The interest of this framework is demonstrated from its application to the routine evaluation of ensemble forecasts and to the assessment of the quality improvements brought in by the recent change in horizontal resolution of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system.
PB - ECMWF
PY - 2011
EP - 27
T2 - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
TI - Verification of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed against observations
UR - https://www.ecmwf.int/node/11679
ER -