TY - GEN
AU - Emanuel Dutra
AU - Michail Diamantakis
AU - Ivan Tsonevsky
AU - Ervin Zsótér
AU - Fredrik Wetterhall
AU - Tim Stockdale
AU - David Richardson
AU - Florian Pappenberger
AB - The Extreme Forecast index (EFI) concept has been applied to the ECMWF seasonal forecasts (S4) of 2-meter temperature and total precipitation using a novel semi-analytical technique. Results derived from synthetic data highlight the importance of large ensemble sizes to reduce the EFI calculation uncertainty due to sampling. This new diagnostic, complements current diagnostics, as exemplified for the 2012 warm summer in South Central and Eastern Europe. The EFI provides an integrated measure of the difference between a particular seasonal forecast ensemble and the underlying model climate which can be used as an early warning indicator.
BT - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
DA - 06/2013
DO - 10.21957/m4j70t27c
LA - eng
M1 - 703
N2 - The Extreme Forecast index (EFI) concept has been applied to the ECMWF seasonal forecasts (S4) of 2-meter temperature and total precipitation using a novel semi-analytical technique. Results derived from synthetic data highlight the importance of large ensemble sizes to reduce the EFI calculation uncertainty due to sampling. This new diagnostic, complements current diagnostics, as exemplified for the 2012 warm summer in South Central and Eastern Europe. The EFI provides an integrated measure of the difference between a particular seasonal forecast ensemble and the underlying model climate which can be used as an early warning indicator.
PB - ECMWF
PY - 2013
EP - 24
T2 - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
TI - The extreme forecast index applied to seasonal forecasts
UR - https://www.ecmwf.int/node/9171
ER -