TY - GEN
AU - M. Mujumdar
AU - Franco Molteni
AU - A Ghelli
AU - Frédéric Vitart
AU - Paul Dando
AU - J.M. Slingo
AB - The skill of dynamical forecasts of widespread rainfall events (WSREs) over central India is examined using high-resolution models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The WSREs entail interactions between the large-scale monsoon circulation and the convective systems which are embedded within the boreal summer Inter Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). A diagnostic analysis of the ECMWF forecasts of WSREs during 2007 is performed. Several features of the observed rainfall distribution and large-scale organisation of convection during WSREs are found to be realistically captured by the ECMWF forecasts. The paper acknowledges a potential wider scope for diagnosing the influence of remote and regional forcings on the organisation of large-scale convection. The appraisal could be extended to break phases associated with the evolution of large-scale suppressed convection.
BT - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
DA - 01/2009
DO - 10.21957/691kj4uk
LA - eng
M1 - 580
N2 - The skill of dynamical forecasts of widespread rainfall events (WSREs) over central India is examined using high-resolution models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The WSREs entail interactions between the large-scale monsoon circulation and the convective systems which are embedded within the boreal summer Inter Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). A diagnostic analysis of the ECMWF forecasts of WSREs during 2007 is performed. Several features of the observed rainfall distribution and large-scale organisation of convection during WSREs are found to be realistically captured by the ECMWF forecasts. The paper acknowledges a potential wider scope for diagnosing the influence of remote and regional forcings on the organisation of large-scale convection. The appraisal could be extended to break phases associated with the evolution of large-scale suppressed convection.
PB - ECMWF
PY - 2009
EP - 19
T2 - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
TI - Assessment of ECMWF forecasts: widespread rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon
UR - https://www.ecmwf.int/node/11307
ER -