TY - GEN
AU - K. Puri
AU - J. Barkmeijer
AU - T.N. Palmer
AB - The usefulness of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system for tropical cyclone prediction is studied in terms of the spread in cyclone tracks and intensities. It is shown that significant spread in the tracks is obtained through the use of initial perturbations based on targeted singular vectors derived using linearised physics. Inclusion of stochastic physics in the forecast model leads to larger spread in the central pressures. The spread in the tracks shows high level of sensitivity to the background state used in deriving the singular vectors.
BT - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
CY - Shinfield Park, Reading
DA - 12/1999
DO - 10.21957/39u05tpz
LA - eng
M1 - 298
N2 - The usefulness of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system for tropical cyclone prediction is studied in terms of the spread in cyclone tracks and intensities. It is shown that significant spread in the tracks is obtained through the use of initial perturbations based on targeted singular vectors derived using linearised physics. Inclusion of stochastic physics in the forecast model leads to larger spread in the central pressures. The spread in the tracks shows high level of sensitivity to the background state used in deriving the singular vectors.
PB - ECMWF
PP - Shinfield Park, Reading
PY - 1999
EP - 30
T2 - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
TI - Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors
UR - https://www.ecmwf.int/node/11750
ER -