Between 8 and 10 March 2004 ECMWF hosted the International Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) Workshop. The workshop was organized under the auspices and with the help of NOAA, ECMWF, WCRP/GEWEX, IAHS/PUB and WMO/HWR.
Description
The main objective of HEPEX is to bring the international hydrological community together with the meteorological community to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence by the emergency management and water resources sectors to make decisions that have important consequences for the economy, for public health and safety.
Representatives of operational hydrological services and operational water resources agencies are expected to participate in helping to define and execute the project. HEPEX' objective can be achieved if the meteorological, hydrological and water resources communities understand the key challenges they face and work together both to couple currently available forecasts tools and to improve the current quality of available systems.
Programme
Presentations
| Session 1: Introduction | |
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Introductions and Workshop Objectives Roberto Buizza and John Schaake |
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Introduction to HEPEX Soroosh Sorooshian |
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| Session 2: User Perspectives | |
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The European Flood Forecasting System Paolo Reggaini |
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Ensemble-based predictions of climate Martin Best |
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Operational hydrologic ensemble forecasting Rob Hartman |
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Ensemble optimization for hydroelectric operations Chuck Howard |
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New York Power Authority Niagara Power Project Richard Mueller |
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BC Hydro ESP forecasting Eric Weiss |
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Hydro Quebec Noël Dacruz Evora |
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Hydrometeorological forecasts for hydropower generation Pierre Bernard |
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| Session 3: Organizational Perspectives: Very brief statements concerning possible organizational interest in HEPEX | |
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Some Thoughts About Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) Soroosh Sorooshian |
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IAHS/PUB Jim Wallace |
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AHS/GEWEX/WRAP Alan Hall |
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GEWEX/GAPP Jin Huang |
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WMO Wolfgang Grabs |
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ECMWF Philippe Bougeault |
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NASA Christa Peters-Lidard |
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NOAA/NWS/AHPS John Schaake |
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Canadian WMIG Richard Mueller |
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CUASHI Rick Hooper |
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THORPEX/WWRP Zoltan Toth |
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USWRP Bob Gall |
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| Session 4: Weather and Climate Ensemble Prediction | |
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Introduction to Ensemble Forecasting Tom Hamill |
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Flood prediction with the ECMWF EPS Roberto Buizza |
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NCEP Ensemble Prediction Zoltan Toth |
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Hydrological ensemble forecasting at the Met Office Brian Golding |
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SMHI Per Kallberg |
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Assessment of Ensemble Forecasts Steve Mullen |
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Ensemble forecasts in the European Flood Alert System Ad de Roo |
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COSMO-LEPS Ensemble Prediction System Chiara Marsigli |
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Precipitation verification Anna Ghelli |
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Parameterization of moist processes Glenn Shutts |
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Canada's Meteorological Ensemble Prediction System Gilbert Brunet |
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Operational short-term flood forecasting for Bangladesh Tim Palmer |
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| Session 5: Hydrological Ensemble Prediction | |
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Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Rob Hartman |
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Results of the EFFS Project Paolo Reggiani |
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CEH Ensemble hydrological forecasting Bob Moore |
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Hydrologic forecast model uncertainty issues Hoshin Gupta |
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GSFC's land data assimilation systems Christa Peters-Lidard |
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Land data assimilation at NCEP Dag Lohmann |
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Seasonal hydrological forecast system for the Western U.S. Andy Wood |
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Case studies of the August 2002 Danube flood Gabor Balint |
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Ensemble forecasts for the Po Basin Flood of 2000 Pedro Viterbo |
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Ensemble forecast verification Allen Bradley |
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USWRP and HEPEX Bob Gall |
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Miscellaneous presentations
Group 1: Meteorological Aspects of Ensemble Prediction |
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Quantifying EPS forecast skill Daniel Schertzer |
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Group 2: Hydrological Aspects of Ensemble Prediction |
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Hydrological ensemble prediction plans at the SMHI Barbro Johansson |
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Hydrological ensemble forecasts for Belgium Emmanuel Roulin |
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Use of ensemble forecasts for flood warning in Central Europe Peter Krahe |
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Operational flood forecasting system in Lower Austria Günter Blöschl |
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Ensemble forecast verification Kristie Franz |
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Bayesian combination of analogs and ensemble forecasts Ezio Todini |
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Evaluation of uncertainty propagation Jost von Hardenberg |
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Group 3: Data Assimilation |
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Group 4: Hydrological Modeling |
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Identification of parameter dominance Praveen Kumar |
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Choice of rainfall-runoff Eric Gaume |
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Geomorphologic - MonteCarlo models of hydrologic response Michele Ferri |
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Monitoring of the water budget over France Florence Habets |
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Non-stationary and non-linear analysis, and prediction of hydroclimatic variables of Africa Thian Yew Gan |
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Representative elementary watershed modeling Paolo Reggiani |
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Working groups
| Working group introductions | - |
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| Group 1: Meteorological Aspects of Ensemble Prediction | |
| Group 2: Hydrological Aspects of Ensemble Prediction | |
| Group 3: Data Assimilation | |
| Group 4: Hydrological Modeling | |
| Group 5: User roles in HEPEX | |
| Group 6: Community hydrological prediction system (CHPS) | |
| Group 7: Organization of framework for HEPEX | |
| Group 8: Contributions and future activities | |
| Group 9: Science and implementation strategies | |
| Group 10: Education/user applications/product development | |