Every year ECMWF organizes a seminar with a pedagogical objective, whereby a selected topic related to numerical weather prediction is highlighted. The subject of the seminar in 2010 was Predictability in the European and Atlantic regions from days to years, held from 6 to 9 September 2010.
Description
The Atlantic-European region is recognized as a part of the world where the natural, internal variability of the atmosphere tends to dominate over boundary-forced signals. Despite the noticeable improvements of NWP models in predicting phenomena such as Mediterranean storms and European blocking, the prediction of some extreme manifestations of these events remains challenging. Furthermore, extended-range and seasonal forecasts for this region remain a very difficult task.
Although this can be partially attributed to an intrinsic limit in predictability, there is increasing evidence of the potential arising from a better simulation of phenomena such as MJO teleconnections, stratosphere-troposphere interactions and sea-ice variability. This potential might be realized through improved physical parameterizations that would also take into account their inherent uncertainty. On the longer time scale, skilful simulations of teleconnections with tropical Atlantic SST may be achieved by a better representation of tropical Atlantic Ocean variability in coupled models.
The seminar reviewed recent progress in predicting Euro-Atlantic variability on a variety of scales, with emphasis on the links between different regions and various components of the weather/climate system.
Programme
Presentations
| Monday 6 September | |
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Session 1: Dynamical understanding of weather and climate variability over Europe |
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Theories of low-frequency variability over Europe Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) |
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North Atlantic wave guide Heini Wernli (ETH) |
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Euro-Atlantic regimes and their tele-connections Christophe Cassou (CNRS) |
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Synoptic-scale variability in the Mediterranean Andrea Buzzi (ISAC) |
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Variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Rowan Sutton (NCAS) |
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Gyre variability and tropical modes in the Atlantic Martin Visbeck (IFM-GEOMAR) |
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| Tuesday 7 September | |
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Session 2: Predictability and actual predictive skill of operational systems from daily to seasonal scales |
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Predictability of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic/European regions Lizzie Froude (ESSC, University of Reading) |
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Modelling and predictability of weather systems in West Africa : lessons learnt from AMMA Jan Polcher (IPSL/CNRS ) |
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The TIGGE experience: Does the multi-model concept work for medium-range weather forecasts? Renate Hagedorn (ECMWF) |
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Use of re-analyses and re-forecasts for the calibration of long-range predictions Huug van den Dool (NCEP) |
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Seasonal prediction over Europe Francisco Doblas-Reyes (IC3) |
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Predictability and prediction of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation Hai Lin (Environment Canada) |
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| Wednesday 8 September | |
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Session 3: Influence of ocean/land-surface/stratospheric conditions on Europe |
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Influence of land surface variability over Europe Pedro Viterbo (Institute Meteorologia, Portugal) |
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Impact of ENSO over Europe Adam Scaife (Met Office) |
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Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate Alessandra Giannini (IRI) |
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Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its impact on the European weather in the ECMWF monthly forecasts Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF) |
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Predictability of the coupled troposphere- stratosphere system Heiner Körnich (University of Stockholm) |
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Variability of Arctic sea-ice and its influence Peter Lemke (Alfred Wegener Institute) |
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| Thursday 9 September | |
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Session 4: Looking ahead: areas of possible/expected progress |
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Convective-scale and short-range predictability of high-impact weather events Olivier Nuissier (CNRM/GAME) |
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The future of predictability- can decadal prediction be informative? Joe Tribbia (NCAR) |
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Beyond the seasonal timescale Wilco Hazeleger (KNMI) |
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Re-analyses as predictability tools Kiyotoshi Takahashi (JMA) |
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Attribution of individual weather events to external drivers of climate change Myles Allen (University of Oxford) |
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A grand challenge for weather and climate prediction: towards the fully probabilistic Earth- System Model Tim Palmer (ECMWF) |
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Proceedings
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Synoptic-scale variability in the Mediterranean A Buzzi |
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Euro-Atlantic regimes and their teleconnections C Cassou |
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Seasonal prediction over Europe F J Doblas-Reyes |
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The predictability of extratropical cyclones L S R Froude |
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The influence of sea surface temperatures on African climate A Giannini |
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The TIGGE experience: Does the multi-model concept work for medium-range weather forecasts? R Hagedorn |
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Prediction beyond the seasonal time scale W Hazeleger |
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Predictability of the coupled troposphere-stratosphere system H Körnich |
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Predictability and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation H Lin |
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Convective-scale and short-range predictability of high-impact weather events O Nuissier |
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Impact of ENSO on European climate A A Scaife |
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Re-analyses as predictability tools K Takahashi |
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Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its impact on the European weather in the ECMWF monthly forecasts F Vitart |
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Use of re-analyses and re-forecasts at NCEP H van den Dool |
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