Annual Seminar 2019

ECMWF | Reading | 2-5 September 2019

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Subseasonal and seasonal forecasting: recent progress and future prospects

More than two decades ago, seasonal forecasting started as a pilot project at ECMWF. Now it is a corner-stone of climate services. Originally a spin-off from seasonal forecasting, the sub-seasonal range covered the then so-called predictability desert; now it is a key building block of the seamless forecasting strategy, with clear prospects for useful skill gains at week 3 and 4.

Although the predictable processes and predictability drivers differ between the subseasonal and seasonal scales, prediction at these time ranges is a combination of initial and boundary problems. Sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions act as a bridge between weather and climate.

This seminar reviewed recent advances in our understanding of the predictability at these time scales. It presented current forecasting capabilities, and summarised recent but consolidated findings from numerical experimentation and exploitation of public data bases. It also provided a perspective of incipient developments related with data exploration, forecast products and predictability drivers, which will shape the future of seamless forecasting systems.

Sessions and programme

Session 1: Basis for predictability at the extended and seasonal range 
Chair - Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

Session 2: Physical processes, modelling and initialisation requirements
Chair - Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

Session 3:  System Design
Chair - Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

Session 4: Detecting and exploiting skill
Chair - Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

Session 5: Databases for science and applications
Chair - Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)

Full programme

Presentations and recordings

Monday 2 September 2019

Welcome and opening
Andy Brown (ECMWF)

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A personal perspective on predictability on sub-seasonal to seasonal time-scales
Brian Hoskins (University of Reading & Imperial College London)

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Taming the butterfly effect to reach subseasonal and seasonal predictability
Roberto Buizza (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)

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Predictability associated with teleconnections from tropical phenomena
Franco Molteni (ECMWF)

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The complexity of ENSO and its impacts: lessons learnt from initialized predictions
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

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Tuesday 3 September 2019

The Madden-Julian Oscillation
Steven Woolnough (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)

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Multi-Scale Impacts of Extratropical Ocean on the Atmosphere
Hisashi Nakamura (RCAST, University of Tokyo)

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Land surface as a predictability driver in Subseasonal and seasonal Forecasts
Emanuel Dutra (Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa)

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High-latitude processes in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions
Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

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The role of atmospheric composition in the predictability at the S2S scale
Angela Benedetti (ECMWF)

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The role of the stratosphere for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting
Daniela Domeisen (ETH Zurich)

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Statistical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts at the extended and seasonal range
David Stephenson (University of Exeter)

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Wednesday 4 September 2019

Atmospheric teleconnections, the North Atlantic Oscillation and long range forecasts of European winters
Adam Scaife (Met Office Hadley Centre)

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Seasonal forecasting systems: present and future
Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

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Multi-week/seasonal prediction for agricultural applications in Australia
Oscar Alves (Bureau of Meteorology)

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The US Navy’s Extended-range Prediction System with High-resolution Ocean and Ice models
Carolyn Reynolds (US Naval Research Laboratory)

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How Using NASA’s Observations Affects the Balance Among Spatial Resolution, Ensemble Size, and Physical Complexity in the GEOS-S2S System
Steven Pawson (NASA GSFC)

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Comparing the Predictability and Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts
Timothy DelSole (George Mason University)

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Predicting high impact weather events beyond the medium range
Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)

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Towards process-based narratives for seasonal climate predictions
Johanna Baehr (Institute of Oceanography, CEN, Uni Hamburg)

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Thursday 5 September 2019

What did we learn from the S2S database?
Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

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Bridging the Gap between Weather and Climate Prediction using Multi-model Ensembles
Kathleen Pegion (George Mason University/COLA)

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Seasonal forecast data and information: the providers' perspective from the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)

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Subseasonal and seasonal climate forecast applications
Francisco Doblas-Reyes (BSC)

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Analyzing causal pathways of the stratospheric polar vortex using machine learning tools
Marlene Kretschmer (PIK Potsdam)

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Where our science ambitions meet computing and data handling limitations
Peter Bauer (ECMWF)

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Posters

Forecasting the onset of rainy season for African farmers
Bob Ammerlaan (Weather Impact BV)

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Effect of Sea Ice Thickness Initialisation on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting
Beena Balan Sarojini (ECMWF)

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An Introduction to FGOALS-f2 S2S prediction system
Qing Bao (LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

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Sub-seasonal forecasts over Europe for the energy sector: current forecast status and an insight into model error
Joshua Dorrington (University of Oxford)

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Euro-Mediterranean Weather regimes and Morocco winter precipitation
Fouad Gadouali (Direction de la Météorologie Nationale)

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Sources of seasonal predictability in the Mediterranean
Ignazio Giuntoli (CNR Italian National Research Council)

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Improved QBO teleconnection due to reduced model circulation biases
Alexey Karpechko (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

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GEOS S2S Version 3: The New GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System
Andrea Molod (NASA/GMAO)

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Towards Typhoon forecasting in the S2S time scale
Masuo Nakano (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC))

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Categorized correction forecast for accumulative precipitation of heavy rainfall processes based on optimal probability (OPPF) in medium-extended-range forecast time
Ruoyun Niu (National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration)

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How can deep-learning assist physical modelling and forecasting?
Sungmin O (Max Planck for Biogeochemistry)

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Preliminary results of introducing soil moisture data assimilation to the JMA Global Ensemble Prediction System
Kenta Ochi (Japan Meteorological Agency)

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iColt: results from the summer operational seasonal predictions of irrigation water need in Emilia-Romagna
Valentina Pavan (ARPAE-SIMC)

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Calibration of ECMWF SEAS5 precipitation forecasts in Java (Indonesia) using statistical post-processing of precipitation and climate indices
Dian Ratri (KNMI)

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The wintertime North Atlantic response to increased ocean model resolution in the IFS across timescales
Chris Roberts (ECMWF)

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Mechanisms and predictability of Sudden Stratospheric Warming in winter 2018
Irina Statnaia (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

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Impact of applying two-tiered sea surface temperature approach to Global Ensemble Prediction System
Toshinari Takakura

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SEAS5-20C: Biennial (24-month long) hindcasts for the 20th Century
Antje Weisheimer

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Organising committee

Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anca Brookshaw, Laura Ferranti, Tim Stockdale, Frederic Vitart, Antje Weisheimer