15 May 2019, 0830 UTC, and 16 May 2019, 1600 UTC
Example of extra observations assimilated in a single data assimilation cycle as a result of changes in ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System planned for June.
ECMWF upgrades its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) on a regular basis, and one such upgrade, to IFS Cycle 46r1, was planned for 11 June 2019. These upgrades enable the Centre to integrate the latest scientific advances into the IFS and to introduce new products.
Ahead of the implementation of IFS Cycle 46r1, Director of Forecasts Florian Pappenberger gave two webinars, on 15 and 16 May 2019, to explain how the changes will improve forecasts. He also presented new data and graphical products to be made available, including some case studies.
The upgrade brings major improvements in data assimilation – the combination of Earth system observations with model information to define the initial conditions for forecasts – as well as in modelling and the range of observations used. Together the changes result in substantially better forecasts across the range of predicted values, including near-surface weather variables such as wind and temperature. Product innovations include making the Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails for weekly mean 2-metre temperature and one-week total precipitation available in the extended range.