Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the 20th century using the ECMWF forecasting system

Title
Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the 20th century using the ECMWF forecasting system
Report
Date Published
11/2003
Series/Collection
ERA-40 Project Report Series
Document Number
10
Author
T. Jung
E. Klinker
S. Uppala
Event Series/Collection
ERA Report
Abstract The latest ECWMF forecasting system is used together with historical observational data to reanalyse three major European storms of the 20th century and to assess their predictability. The storms considered are the Dutch storm of 1 February 1953, the Hamburg storm of 17 February 1962, and the British/French October storm of 1987. Common to all these storms is their severity that caused large loss of life and widespread damage. From the results presented in this study it is concluded—though keeping in mind the limited number of cases considered—that with the current forecasting system reliable predictions of European wind storms might be possible well into the near medium-range. This is particularly true given that nowadays more observations are available (especially satellite data). Furthermore, it is argued that Ensemble Prediction Systems are an important component of every early warning system for they allow an a priori quantification of the probability of the occurrence of severe weather events.
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